Новый опус от госпожи Сакс

[Arno]

International Herald Tribune, France

Dec 15 2004

For Armenia, deepening isolation and little hope

By Susan Sachs

The New York Times

Wednesday, December 15, 2004

YEREVAN, Armenia Landlocked and stuck in a cold war with two of its

four neighbors, Armenia has rarely seemed so alone as in the past few

months.

Citing terrorism concerns, Russia abruptly sealed its border with

Georgia in September and kept it closed for nearly two months,

effectively cutting off the road that was the main transit route for

Armenian trade with Russia.

At the same time, Armenians had to watch from the sidelines as

Azerbaijan and Georgia celebrated the completion of a large section

of the pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil to the Turkish port of

Ceyhan. The $3 billion regional energy project bypasses Armenia

entirely.

Another bitter pill came in October, when the European Union's

executive commission recommended that Turkey start negotiations for

full membership without first having to end its rail and land

blockade of Armenia.

For many people in this impoverished country, the events added up to

a scary reminder of their deepening isolation.

"If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an island," said Levon

Barseghyan, a political activist in Gyumri, a rundown town on the

railroad line that was closed by Turkey in 1992. "Everyone will

forget about Armenia."

As winter closes in, bringing the risk of new hardships in a country

heavily dependent on imports and foreign aid, the prospects for

change appear slim without outside intervention.

Armenia's long-running conflict with Azerbaijan, its oil-producing

neighbor to the east, remains one of the more intractable problems

left from the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Both countries claim Nagorno-Karabakh, a slice of land that is

geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan but is controlled by

ethnic Armenian separatists. Their six-year war over Karabakh ended

with a ceasefire in 1994, after 35,000 people were killed and an

estimated one million people, most of them Azeri, became refugees.

Turkey, Armenia's big neighbor to the west, has backed its Turkic

ally, Azerbaijan, and closed its land border with Armenia. Turkish

leaders have said they would not reopen the border until Armenia

takes steps to withdraw its troops from in and around Karabakh.

Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled despite mediation efforts

by Russia, France and the United States.

"On neither side is there a public mood that is conducive to

compromise," said a western diplomat in Yerevan, speaking on

condition of anonymity.

The stalemate has left Armenia boxed in from the east and the west,

excluded from the giant Caspian Sea energy pipeline that should

provide hefty transit fees for the other countries it passes through.

Turkish and Russian goods make their way to Armenia - Turkey is its

seventh largest trading partner - but with the added cost of road

transit through third countries like Georgia or by the planes that

operate flights between Yerevan and Istanbul.

Georgia's roads, however, have sometimes been closed because of

political instability or, as was the case this fall, because of

action by Russia. Armenia's only other direct outlet is through Iran

to the south, where trade has been hampered by a poor road network

and lack of rail lines.

Given the impact of their unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan,

Armenian officials have been eager to revive peace talks. But they

have also have refused to make unilateral concessions on Karabakh,

which they refer to as liberated Armenian territory, in exchange for

Turkey's reopening of rail and road traffic.

"We won't trade off Karabakh for a railroad," said the foreign

minister, Vardan Oskanyan, adding that Armenians have learned to cope

with their isolation. "Things are evolving around us. Let it be."

Many Armenians, foreign donors and economists are not nearly as

sanguine. While the economy has recovered from the near-total

blockade on Armenia in the early 1990s, the gross domestic output is

no higher than it was in 1988, before a devastating earthquake. A

reopening of the eastern and western borders, according to

international studies, would quickly boost its growth rate by as much

as 50 percent.

Meanwhile, despite infusions of cash from Armenians living abroad

that account for more than 20 percent of the country's income, nearly

half of the country's 3 million people live in poverty on less than

$2 a day. The limited opportunities have contributed to an exodus of

working-age Armenians since independence 13 years ago, with some

estimates putting the population loss at nearly 30 percent.

Such dire circumstances might be expected to provoke political

unrest. But they have not noticeably weakened President Robert

Kocharian, a Karabakh native and former commander of the separatist

forces who was reelected to a second term last year.

"Every day the government tells us our economy can flourish without

opening the Turkish border and without solving the Karabakh problem,"

said Aram Abrahamyan, editor of the Aravot daily newspaper. "And the

government propaganda succeeds with the common people."

A very different scenario was predicted by a private research group

called Armenia 2020, which has commissioned studies of the country's

future based on a range of possible developments.

One prediction was based on the status quo continuing for another 10

years. It concluded that "if there are no changes, there is no

prosperity," said Arashes Kazakhetsyan, the director of the group.

The Armenian government has focused much of its efforts on a

two-pronged approach to Turkey. It has appealed directly to Turkish

leaders to normalize relations. At the same time, it has tried to

increase diplomatic pressure on Turkey, openly questioning Turkey's

fitness to start European Union entry talks before it addresses

Armenian grievances.

In an interview, Oskanyan said he did not understand why European

leaders ignored what he called Turkey's "faults and shortcomings"

with regard to Armenia. "What is regrettable," he said, "is that

Europe is closing its eyes on Turkey's petulance."

Oskanyan stopped short of saying Turkey's bid should be rejected,

although Armenian lobbying groups have been making that argument in

Brussels. While Turkey has changed many of its policies over the last

two years to win European Union acceptance, there has been no

indication of a shift in its official line toward Armenia.

Private contacts between Turks and Armenians will continue to be

encouraged, said a senior Turkish diplomat in Ankara. But the

diplomat said the political impasse must be broken by Armenia. "We

can't change our policy on the Azeris," he said. "So the first move

has to come from Armenia. We would like to see an opening, even a

small opening, on Nagorno-Karabakh."

[Arno]

чем вам не рупор официальной Анкары. C этой мадам всё становится на свои места, не думаете?

[beatnik]

Все это наводит меня на мысль, что идет активная подготовка общественного мнения к "предстоящим политическим событиям" в Армении.

[Arno]

Все это наводит меня на мысль, что идет активная подготовка общественного мнения к "предстоящим политическим событиям" в Армении.

[beatnik]

Имелось ввиду в основном западное общественное мнение.

[Astral Sleep]

по поводу того, что это рупор официальной Анкары - польностью согласен!!!

[Gegham]

Статю Сакс на армянском можно прочитать здесь

[apmeh]

http://www.golos.am/2000/december_2004/16/...december16.html

[Wir]

Все это наводит меня на мысль, что идет активная подготовка общественного мнения к "предстоящим политическим событиям" в Армении.

[beatnik]

похоже в этом вопросе мы с тобой похоже мыслим, Битник. В последнее вреия появилась куча каких то мелких косвенных деталей, которые как то удивительно совпадают. И возвращение АОД и эти статьи, на мой взгляд, звенья одной цепи.

[Artsakhci]

Всё в этом мире продаётся, к сожалению... А ведь New York Times был одним из первых, кто написал о Геноциде Армян 15-го года и назвал это Армянским Холокостом. Теперь такие как Сакс (интересная фамилия кстати), продают не только себя, но и инкриминируют такую уважаемую газету как NYT.

Кстати, то что "сказала" Wir, ещё раз подтверждает, что АОД так же являются прдожаными проститутками, то бишь предателями идей армянского народа и всего армянства.

[greco El]

Обратите внимание, как умело она подает материал. Я восхищен ее профессионализмом.

Сначала: Армения #eровая страна, в ней всем #eрово живется.

А затем, дабы подтвердить свои слова, чтоб они не показались голословными, мисс Sachs цитирует, причем кого -армянского же политика!

Вот вам и стряпана основанная на фактах статья.

И ведь не придерешься - эти слова произнес "политик Барсегян".

П.С. если бы каждый следил за теми словами, которые он произносит публично... Ах, мечты, мечты... тщета!

[greco El]

>...openly questioning Turkey's fitness to start European Union entry talks before it addresses Armenian grievances.

Это о геноциде она сказала "недовольство"? Lol.

[Deda]

Все это наводит меня на мысль, что идет активная подготовка общественного мнения к "предстоящим политическим событиям" в Армении.

[ORXAN-BEY]

Хм. А мне понравилось. Умно всё и чётко.