Армения получила суверенный кредитный рейтинг "BB-

[darwin]

Рейтинговое агентство Fitch присвоило Армении суверенный кредитный рейтинг "ВВ-". Об этом ИА REGNUM сообщили в пресс-службе Центрального Банка Армении. Этот рейтинг позволит Армении принять полноправное участие на международной финансовой арене.

Рейтинги уровня "BB" обозначают, что существует возможность развития кредитных рисков, особенно в результате негативных экономических изменений, которые могут произойти со временем. Однако при этом компаниям могут быть доступны альтернативные ресурсы в сфере бизнеса или финансов, которые позволят им выполнить свои финансовые обязательства. Ценные бумаги, которым присвоены рейтинги данного уровня, не являются ценными бумагами инвестиционной категории. Рейтинги могут быть дополнены знаком "+" или "-" для обозначения относительного положения в рамках основных рейтинговых категорий.

Постоянный адрес новости: www.regnum.ru/news/652072.html

19:01 05.06.2006

[alef]

Fitch пишет что это очень даже неплохо, стабильность итд. в числе негативных факторов отмечаются:

1. маленький imcome per capita ($1,500) по сравнению со странами BB-rated которые имеют в среднем $2,500;

2. нерешенный конфликт в Карабахе;

3. самую низкую ставку налогов (14% от GDP).

я выкладываю здесь полный текст, простите - английский - выкладываю т.к надо там регистрироваться.

Fitch Rates Armenia 'BB-'; Outlook Stable

05 Jun 2006 6:00 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-London-05 June 2006: Fitch has today assigned the Republic of Armenia foreign and local currency Issuer Default ratings ("IDR") of 'BB-' (BB minus) with a Stable Outlook. At the same time Fitch has assigned a Short-term rating of 'B' and a Country Ceiling of 'BB-' (BB minus).

"Armenia's sovereign credit ratings are supported by prudent macroeconomic policies and a declining public and external debt burden that compares favourably with rated peers," says David Riley, Managing Director of Fitch's Sovereigns Group. Impressive economic performance has been underpinned by a robust and coherent macroeconomic policy framework and wide-ranging structural reforms that have enhanced the capacity of the economy to absorb adverse shocks.

Armenia's public finances are a rating strength. Fiscal deficits have been contained at below 3% of GDP since 2002 and are forecast to remain so, aiding a continued reduction in the general government debt burden, which at 21% of GDP in 2005 already compares well with its rated peers. The Central Bank of Armenia ("CBA") has a demonstrated commitment to low inflation - which has averaged 3.3% per year since 2000 - and a flexible exchange rate regime, helping to insulate the economy from adverse external price shocks. Moderate fiscal and external financing needs are comfortably met with concessional loans from the international financial institutions ("IFIs"), and external debt servicing costs are correspondingly low and below those of peers.

Nonetheless, the importance of maintaining prudent fiscal and monetary policies and building confidence in the CBA's new inflation targeting regime and economic stability are underscored by low levels of monetisation and financial intermediation that, combined with high dollarisation, continue to render the economy vulnerable to shocks. With income per capita rising rapidly, official financing flows will become less concessional and the government will need to broaden its financing sources, including by developing the domestic government bond market. Substantial inflows of remittances - estimated at around USD750 million (15% of GDP) - help narrow the domestic savings-investment gap and are an important source of external finance, but they are also potentially susceptible to exogenous shocks. And while the scorecard in terms of economic reform and liberalisation since independence is impressive, further measures to strengthen governance and the still relatively immature political system, as well as reduce the high level of corruption, would enhance long-term investment and growth prospects.

Despite strong economic growth, Armenia's ratings are constrained by its low per capita income, which stood at just USD1,500 in 2005 compared to the 'BB' group median of USD2,500. Armenia subsequently has a lower debt tolerance than wealthier economies. The government also faces the challenge of increasing its tax take as social and infrastructure spending needs rise over the short- to medium-term. At just 14% of GDP, the government's tax base is among the lowest of all sovereigns rated by Fitch and constrains overall revenue generation, in turn limiting fiscal flexibility. A further important rating consideration is the country's challenging geopolitical situation, notably with respect to the absence of a permanent resolution on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the normalisation of relations with Turkey. Fitch judges the risk of renewed violent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh to be low over the near to medium term. Nonetheless, the absence of a permanent political resolution continues to pose a threat to regional stability over the long term.

In Fitch's judgement substantive changes in economic policies are unlikely, despite national assembly and presidential elections in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Improving the business environment and raising domestic savings and investment, including the development of local capital markets that would enhance the government's domestic financing capability, would be positive for Armenia's ratings. Negative economic or political shocks, including increased tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh or the results of forthcoming elections, would bring negative pressure to bear on the ratings.

[Абрикос]

...Форум-джан...BB дали! Какая гидравлика, с ума сойдешь ! Та-ни-на-ни-на-...

[alef]

...Форум-джан...BB дали! Какая гидравлика, с ума сойдешь ! Та-ни-на-ни-на-...

[tiko]

Намудрил Fitch как очень часто бывает с emerging markets. Текушие ставки по гос облигациям намного ниже чем то подразумевает BB- . Но с другой стороны основные инвесторы на армянском рынке местные, так что пока рейтинг просто ничего не значашие буковки. Вот когда будем евробонды выпускать, нужно будет плакаться по поводу рейтинга. А пока все пучком.

[Nakomichi]

Круто...