Turkish-Armenian relations

[Sari Galin]

Ali Yurttagül

The results of the Armenian elections last Tuesday were unfortunately not as hopeful as those experienced recently in Cyprus.

The former prime minister and new president Sarkisian is from the "Karabakh family," which holds power in Armenia in its hands like a caliphate. Sarkisian is, like Kocharian, a politician who supports the independence of Karabakh. His political star began to shine during his time in the Soviet Union Communist Party, and he held an important position during the occupation of Azeri lands. He has also held important positions such as defense minister during his career in Armenia. Observers in Europe believe that Sarkisian will continue Russia-indexed policies while in power in Armenia, and that he will not start up any solution-seeking efforts on the Karabakh issue. In Armenia, where corruption levels are high, close ties with the EU are seen not only as a path toward economic development, but also as a vehicle to put pressure on Turkey. While it is expected that Kocharian will move into the role of prime minister during Sarkisian's presidency, a move by Turkey into a period of pro-active policies toward Armenia is seen by many as the only factor that could alter balances in Armenia in the post-election period there. These kind of pro-active policies, which we examine closely below, would turn the EU factor into an element of pressure against Armenia rather than Turkey, and could change political balances noticeably.

In terms of the difficult and multi-dimensional problems that relations with Armenia present for Turkey, it is difficult to say that Turkey has used the "time" factor very well, or has developed, as in the case with Cyprus, any easy-to-read policies aimed at solution. Before entering into the question of what trajectory any "solution policies" for relations with Armenia could take for Turkey, we would like to touch on the current situation in Armenia, the genocide matter, the problems concerning Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as international and EU relations.

From a geographical perspective, Armenia is a small, enclosed nation with Georgia to its north, a small border with Iran to the south, and Turkey and Azerbaijan to its west and east, respectively. Armenia achieved its independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union, but has been struggling now for years with both economic and political problems because of the Karabakh problem and its war with Azerbaijan. Armenia, whose economic and defense policies are completely indexed on Russia, is supported by Iran on the question of its tensions with Azerbaijan, and is particularly dependent on Iran on the matter of trade. With these Russia and Iran-based policies on one end, Armenia also carries off warm relations with the EU and the US due to its strong diasporas in the latter two, as well as the sympathy held by the West for Armenia's history. Even though if these "policies of balance" look possible now due to the post Cold War moderate political climate that began with Gorbachev and have continued since, this is certainly not a permanent strategy for Armenia. The moment that clashes between the Iran-Russia duo and the West deepen in the energy base that is the Caucasus, this "policy of balance" held by Armenia will be subject to collapse.

When we closely examine Armenia's dependence and "policies of balance" when it comes to Russia and Iran, we see that Armenia is, like Cyprus, a difficult nation where extreme nationalism is high, and violence plays a considerable role in politics most of the time. It is doubtful, for example, that there are many nations in the world where a prime minister and eight of his cabinet ministers, in other words almost the entire government cabinet of ministers, have been killed during a parliamentary session, as was the case in Armenia. As for the dependence on Russia, it is of a character which completes the extreme nationalism in Armenia, where politicians from the Karabakh region play an important role. Though the price paid by Armenian society for this may be high, the fact is that in the wake of these most recent elections, it now looks extremely unlikely that there will be efforts to index Armenia's politics more heavily on the West, open up to Turkey, or find a permanent solution to the Karabakh problem. It would nothing but a waste of time, after all, to expect such an effort that was supported by neither Russia nor Iran. For this reason, Turkey needs to develop an Armenia policy which will alter today's situation, making it more difficult for Armenia carry on its "balance policies," and preventing Armenia from continuing its conflicting, contradictory relations with the West and the EU.

Ali Yurttagül is a political advisor for the Greens in the European Parliament.