Фото с митинга ЛТП и реакции

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© Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

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«Առավոտը» մեջբերում է «Ժառանգության» Հովսեփ Խուրշուդյանին. «առաջիկա օրերին տեղի կունենա Րաֆֆի Հովհաննիսյան - Լեւոն Տեր-Պետրոսյան հանդիպում»:

Իշխանությունների խուճապի սաստկացման եւս մեկ առիթ... :brows:

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© Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

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Nikol

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© Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

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“Zerkalo”: Fear of Democracy Or?..

29.10.2007

Campaign “on protection” of Robert Kocharyan and Serj Sarkisyan is picking up a speed in Azerbaijan

“Co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group started realization of active “shuttle” in regulation of Garabagh conflict with the purpose of rapprochement of parties’ positions”, declared in Yerevan Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Vardan Oskanyan, “Trend” informs referring to “Mediamax”.

Accordingly to him, co-chairs’ visit paid to the region is of new stile in connection with upcoming presidential elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia which give no chance to hold meeting of both heads of states.

V. Oskanyan informed that after visiting Baku co-chairs were expected in Yerevan again. Minister called first stage of Yerevan meetings “good” with “positive tendencies”. Accordingly to him numerous agreed and non-agreed issues focused on by mediator are put on talk table. “We are expecting news from co-chairs hoping that “shuttle” will lead to some results”, Minister said.

Actually, V. Oskanyan declares that co-chairs more than a year that is before completion of Presidential elections in Azerbaijan will imitate continuation of “Prague process” not to start everything from beginning and to justify the very existence of OSCE Minsk Group. But now Armenia attracts more attention as presidential election will be held there earlier that in Azerbaijan that is early next year. It seems that all cards can be confused by supposed participation of first President of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, in elections.

As Day.Az informs scenario following to which L. Ter-Petrosyan will win or head “color revolution” is being discussed in Armenia. It is supposed that the second version is most probable. Accordingly to local observers, USA allots considerable sum to realize “color revolution” scenario in Armenia with Ter-Petrosyan at head, gathering youth groups round former president. Former president and its followers blame today’s leader, R. Kocharyan, and prime minister, S. Sarkisyan, for deepening economic crisis, for dominance of Garabagh clan (Sarkisyan is descend of Garabagh), spread of corruption, political killing, falsification of election results what is typical for making “color” changes. Ter-Petrosyan’s program envisages softening position of Yerevan to Garabagh in return to weakening of economic isolation on the part of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Actually, this directed to USA: if Armenia enters Transcaucasian projects (particularly, railway project Kars-Tbilisi-Baku) Ter-Petrosyan will return to his Garabagh program of 10 year old and lead his country out of Moscow’s influence. Representatives of Yerevan service of “Freedom” radio were informed by Ter-Petrosyan that at the meeting held October 26 in Yerevan he would say something important. Americans aim is to prevent victory of “Armenian Yanukovich” – Serj Sarkisyan, called “favorite of future presidential campaign”.

Prime Minister, Sarkisyan, has disappointed Americans, by staking at Russia and now Washington needs trustworthy protégé.

Azerbaijan mass media confirm this version: October 23, referring to anonymous American diplomat, Day.Az informed that resolution on “genocide of Armenians” was brought up by US Congress just to support Ter-Petrosyan. Russian experts do not believe in success of such scenario. “Armenia is tired of isolation, Ter-Petrosyan may take use of it, said specialist on Caucasus from the Institute of Europe, Alla Yazkova. – But his position on Garabagh are not supported by majority of Armenians what is more important”.

“Garabagh is referred to spiritual field. Armenia won’t give it even in return to removal of blockade, expert Yana Amelina asserts. – And position of Ter-Petrosyan on Garabagh is not changing that is why he will fail to unite protest electorate or opposition”. Day.Az reminds that February 3, 1998 Levon Ter-Petrosyan resigned from Presidential post and his resignation was accepted by Parliament. The reason of resignation was split within ruling elite of Armenia, when prime minister, R. Kocharyan, Minister of Defense, V. Sarkisyan, Minister of Internal Affairs and National Security, S. Sarkisyan, didn’t support L. Ter-Petrosyan’s plan on regulation of Nagorni Garabagh problem. Essence of staged plan was to return 6 regions to Azerbaijan from security zone, to deploy peacemaking forces at the frontiers of Nagorni Garabagh, to release communication and to negotiate on status. His opponents in “party power” proposed “packet” version that is direct connection of status of Nagorni Garabagh with withdrawal of forces from security zone. It is natural that possible results of upcoming presidential elections in Armenia are discussed in Azerbaijan. However, frankly speaking some one-sided direction of such discussions is shocking. Majority of our analysts, politicians declare that preservation of power of current “Garabagh plan” is favorable for Azerbaijan, firstly, because of Armenians’ reputation as terrorists at international area. Secondly, being hawks these leaders within the next 10 days will hardly be interested in signing peace agreement with Azerbaijan and in establishing normal relations with Turkey. It means self-isolation of Armenia and its economic backwardness will be growing.

And if pro-west politician comes to power then making pressure on Azerbaijan will be enforced.

Leader of Party on Democratic Reforms, MM member, Asim Mollazade, is of the similar opinion. He said to Day.Az that “the fact that current leadership of Armenia, which is going to give presidential seat to its next protégé has vivid terrorist past no doubt is very favorable for Azerbaijan in the light of demonstration true nature of those who occupied 20% of territories of Azerbaijan to world community which is preoccupied by fight against world terrorism. We need to see clan as heads of Armenia which systematically tramples on democracy, turns to terror as the last argument, as such “peculiarity” of clan ruling Armenia is well known all over the world. Such heads of Armenia can’t be respected internationally, and now they are regarded as the inevitable evil necessary for certain powers to realize their own policy in the region. At the same time it will be more difficult for us to hope for fair regulation of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in case pro-west politician, democrat, comes to power in Armenia. This democrat can be forgiven even for bloody past of his predecessors which resulted in occupation of the part of neighbor state”.

Author of this material once wrote that he considers such approach to upcoming presidential elections in Armenia as extremely damaging. However we have to return to this theme as addresses “on protection” of R. Kocharyan and S. Sarkisyan in Azerbaijan are gaining the feature of uninterrupted campaign.

First, absurdity of situation is that Azerbaijani politicians blaming R. Kocharan and S. Sarkisyan for absence of constructivism at peace talks, today, actually come for maintenance of the present status. If so then conclusion comes that these politicians are not sincere enough when they say that they advocate the soonest regulation of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Second, politicians publicly coming out for integration of South Caucasus in Euroatlantic structures mainly advocate maintenance Armenia as “outpost” of Russia in the region. It is not secret that Kremlin uses Armenia as pressure tool enabling Russia to impede integration of South Caucasus in Euroatlantic structures. No matter what are motives of these politicians and political scientists their statements are completely in line with Russian foreign policy in South Caucasus. Third what a fear of democracy?! This problem is solved very easy. We need to be more democratic than Georgia and Armenia. Azerbaijan will have such chance in 2008. And finally we wouldn’t like to think that it is fear of loss of traditional and useful “provincial” partners on peace talks with which we got used to play…

R. Mirkadirov

www.zerkalo.az

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ARMENIA’S TER-PETROSIAN SETS STAGE FOR TENSE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Text by Emil Danielyan.

10/29/07

After nearly a decade of self-imposed political retirement, Armenia’s former President Levon Ter-Petrosian is seeking a return to power. His decision, anticipated for months, renders the outcome of an upcoming presidential election unpredictable.

During the biggest opposition rally held in years, Ter-Petrosian urged Armenians on October 26 to help him thwart what he portrayed as the handover of power from President Robert Kocharian to Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. He accused the two men of leading a "gangster state" that stifles dissent and free enterprise.

The development is a further indication that the 62-year-old scholar, who led Armenia to independence from the Soviet Union and earned accolades in the West for his conciliatory line on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, will be Sarkisian’s main election challenger. The latter’s victory in the presidential ballot, due next February or March, was seen by many as a foregone conclusion after his governing Republican Party won last May’s parliamentary elections by a landslide. [For details, see EurasiaNet’s Armenia: Vote 2007].

"From now on, I declare myself a candidate for the presidency of the Republic of Armenia," Ter-Petrosian told about 20,000 people who gathered in Yerevan’s Liberty Square.

His 90-minute speech, repeatedly interrupted by "Levon! Levon!" chants, offered a damning indictment of the Kocharian administration’s policies and track record. A large part of it was devoted to what Ter-Petrosian called the "relentless plunder" of the population by Kocharian, Sarkisian and their political associates.

"In the last five years, the criminal regime has stolen at least $3 billion to $4 billion from the people," Ter-Petrosian alleged, without offering specifics to substantiate the claim. He indicated that officials enjoy a de facto monopoly over the most lucrative economic sectors, and receive informal payments from businessmen with close ties to the government.

Ter-Petrosian went on to dismiss as grossly inflated the double-digit rates of economic growth reported by the Armenian authorities in recent years. He reaffirmed his belief that Armenia’s sustainable economic development is impossible without a solution to the Karabakh conflict. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. And he again alleged that the Kocharian administration prefers the Karabakh status quo to cutting a compromise peace deal with Azerbaijan.

Ter-Petrosian resigned in 1998 under pressure from his key cabinet members, including then Prime Minister Kocharian and Interior Minister Sarkisian, who resented his strong support for an international peace plan that called for a gradual settlement of the conflict, rather than for a package peace plan. The ex-president pointed to the government’s overall acceptance of peace proposals that resemble his earlier ideas as a sign that his position was correct.

Other sensitive areas were also raised. The Yerevan rally was held the day before Armenia marked the eighth anniversary of the 1999 armed attack on parliament that resulted in the deaths of former parliament speaker Karen Demirchian, former prime minister Vazgen Sarkisian (no relation to Serzh), and six other officials. Many Armenians think that the five gunmen had powerful sponsors; some suspect Kocharian and Serzh Sarkisian of masterminding the shootings. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ter-Petrosian likewise pointed the finger at Kocharian, blaming the latter for the bungled criminal investigation into the parliament attack. "The October [1999] massacre was the main milestone that cleared the broad way to the formation and development of Kocharian’s regime," he said.

Neither Kocharian, nor Sarkisian immediately commented on the allegations. Speaking to journalists several hours before the Ter-Petrosian rally, the Armenian president shrugged off his predecessor’s presidential ambitions. "The first president, at least according to the latest surveys, is not the main opposition candidate and there are at least two or three opposition figures with higher approval ratings," he said in televised remarks.

"I am convinced that our people will not want to return to 1995-1996," Kocharian added, accusing Ter-Petrosian of "ruining" the Armenian economy during his rule. Armenia’s Gross Domestic Product shrank by more than half in 1992-1993 following the Soviet collapse and the onset of the war in Karabakh, leaving the country largely cut off from the rest of the world and paralyzed by a severe energy crisis.

While Ter-Petrosian is still widely associated with the resulting hardship, the strong attendance at the October 26 rally suggests that many disaffected Armenians are now ready to at least listen to their former leader. His harsh attacks on the current government, voiced in a characteristically academic manner, appeared to impress many undecided rally participants.

"Before the speech I was dithering, but am now astonished," said one young man. "I’ve never heard such a speech before. He spoke with the precision of a machine."

Vasil Khanaghian, a disabled Karabakh war veteran from a village in southern Armenia, made up his mind before the rally. "I won the war under the leadership of Levon, and not those rascals," he explained, referring to President Kocharian and Prime Minister Sarkisian.

But not everyone in the crowd was convinced. One elderly man, who did not want to give his name, was unhappy with Ter-Petrosian’s failure to talk about controversial episodes from his own presidency such as the flight of his "thieving" former Interior Minister Vano Siradeghian, who left Armenia in 2000 to avoid prosecution for murder.

Ter-Petrosian loyalists, meanwhile, are increasingly buoyed by their leader’s return to active politics. "If this momentum is maintained during the election campaign, his victory will become inevitable," Aghasi Yenokian, a local pundit sympathetic to the ex-president, told EurasiaNet.

Opposition leaders, many of whom have been in talks with Ter-Petrosian for months about his return to politics, argue that the government is increasingly ill at ease with the prospect. On October 23, police detained a dozen pro-Ter-Petrosian activists, among them two newspaper editors, who were publicizing the planned demonstration in downtown Yerevan. They were released the next morning after four-hour negotiations between Ter-Petrosian and senior police officers.

The activists had decided to take to the streets after none of Armenia’s leading TV stations loyal to Kocharian agreed to broadcast paid rally advertisements. One regional TV channel, which aired a September speech by Ter-Petrosian that was his first in a decade, now claims to be harassed by security and tax officials. Transportation was also reportedly restricted between Yerevan and other parts of the country hours before the landmark rally.

In an October 25 editorial, the pro-opposition Yerevan daily Aravot argued that the Armenian authorities were far more tolerant of dissent in the run-up to the May parliamentary elections than in the current presidential campaign. "They either find the upcoming elections more important, or are scared of Levon," it said.

Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a freelance journalist based in Yerevan. Karen Minasyan is a freelance photographer, also in Yerevan.